AI Insider Selling: What the Data Actually Shows

Jim Rickards says AI insiders have been heading for the exits. The question is whether his numbers hold up.

Let’s check the filings.

The Claim

In his April 6, 2026 press release for the AI Black Paper presentation, Rickards warned that insiders at major AI companies have liquidated more than $1 billion in shares. He pointed to SEC Form 4 data — the same filings that executives, directors, and large shareholders must submit within two business days of any trade.

$1 billion sounds like a lot. It is. But the actual data tells a much bigger story.

What SEC Form 4 Data Actually Shows

We pulled the filings. The numbers go far beyond $1 billion.

Nvidia (NVDA)

According to SEC Form 4 data compiled by TECHi and confirmed across multiple trackers, Nvidia insiders have sold more than $3.3 billion in stock through the first quarter of 2026. CEO Jensen Huang alone accounts for roughly $2.9 billion of that total, executed through a series of pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plans beginning in mid-2024.

The selling isn’t just Huang. Director Mark A. Stevens moved $186 million in a single day on June 18, 2026. Another trust associated with Stevens sold $221 million more on June 2-4. CFO Colette Kress, EVP Ajay Puri, and EVP Debora Shoquist have all filed regular sales.

The buy side? Zero. Fifteen insiders. Eighteen months. Not one open-market purchase.

Meta Platforms (META)

Meta’s insider selling is almost as stark. Over the trailing three years, insiders have dumped a net $4.49 billion in stock, per The Motley Fool’s analysis of aggregated Form 4 filings (July 7, 2026). In the past 12 months alone, 131 insider sales totaled $494.7 million — against $0 in insider buying.

CFO Susan Li sold $36.5 million in a single day on February 27, 2026. COO Javier Olivan sells in a steady rhythm, month after month. Mark Zuckerberg himself executed regular sales under 10b5-1 plans throughout August 2025.

Palantir (PLTR)

This is the biggest of the three. Palantir insiders have sold $6.04 billion net over the trailing three years. CEO Alex Karp alone has cashed out $2.2 billion. Director Peter Thiel dumped $290 million in a single day on March 2, 2026, under a 10b5-1 plan.

The company’s 2025 net income was about $1.1 billion. Insiders sold $1.14 billion in the same period. They took more cash out of the company than the company earned.

Broadcom (AVGO)

Broadcom insiders sold approximately $820 million over the past 12 months. Director Henry Samueli sold $250 million in a single filing on June 24, 2026. CEO Hock Tan has been a consistent seller.

CoreWeave (CRWV)

CoreWeave is the outlier. Insiders here have sold $8.5 billion over the past 12 months. Q2 2026 alone saw $3.27 billion in insider sales. This is a post-IPO company where early investors and executives have been monetizing at scale.

Microsoft (MSFT)

Microsoft is the quiet exception. Insider selling here is minimal. The CMO sold $1.8 million in June 2026. Nothing compared to Nvidia or Palantir.

The Totals

Add up just three companies — Nvidia, Palantir, and Meta — and the Motley Fool’s July 7, 2026 analysis puts net insider selling at $15.6 billion over a three-year window.

Throw in Broadcom, CoreWeave, C3.ai, Alibaba, and others, and you’re well north of $20 billion.

Rickards’ $1 billion figure is not wrong. It’s just conservative. By a lot.

Is $1 Billion a Lot? Context Matters

Against a $4.94 trillion market cap at Nvidia, $1 billion is 0.02%. Not a macro number.

But context is about patterns, not percentages. Here’s what makes the data unusual:

Zero buying. Nvidia: 15 insiders, 18 months, $3.3 billion sold, zero purchases. Meta: 131 insider sales in 12 months, zero purchases. Palantir: over $1 billion sold annually, purchases in the low single-digit millions. This is not normal even for high-valuation tech stocks.

Systematic 10b5-1 plans. Most of these sales run through pre-arranged trading plans. That matters. A 10b5-1 plan locks in the timing months in advance. It’s not panic selling — it’s deliberate, scheduled portfolio reduction.

Scale relative to earnings. At Palantir, insider sales exceeded net income. At Nvidia, the $5.09 billion in insider sales over three years is meaningful against any benchmark.

Historical precedent. The last time mega-cap insiders sold at this scale without buying was the dot-com peak. That doesn’t mean it’s 1999 again. But the pattern is worth noting.

What 10b5-1 Plans Don’t Tell You

A 10b5-1 plan lets an executive sell shares on a preset schedule without facing insider trading accusations. Critics say it muddies the signal. Proponents say it proves the sale isn’t based on non-public information.

Both can be true. But here’s what’s also true: nobody forced Jensen Huang to adopt a plan authorizing the sale of 6 million shares worth $865 million (Barron’s, May 2025). Nobody forced Alex Karp to pre-schedule $2.2 billion in disposals. Nobody forced Peter Thiel to set up a plan to sell 2 million shares at once.

A 10b5-1 plan removes the timing signal. It does not remove the volition signal. The insider chose to file that plan, chose the share count, and chose the price thresholds. That choice is the data point.

The Counterargument

Insiders at trillion-dollar companies hold enormous positions. A director with $500 million in stock who sells $50 million hasn’t lost conviction. They’ve diversified. That’s prudent.

Some of the selling is RSU tax withholding — automatic sales to cover the tax bill when restricted stock vests. The C3.ai CFO’s $426,000 sale falls in this bucket. So do many smaller transactions.

And Microsoft’s insiders are barely selling at all. If the AI insider selling thesis were a blanket truth, you’d expect to see it everywhere. You don’t.

Verdict: PASS

Rickards’ claim that AI company insiders have liquidated $1 billion or more in shares passes the fact-check. The actual SEC Form 4 data shows the number is materially higher — likely $15-20+ billion across major AI companies over recent years.

The claim is not alarmist. It’s directionally accurate and arguably understated.

The real question isn’t whether insiders are selling. It’s what it means. Pre-arranged plans at record-high valuations could signal responsible portfolio management. They could also signal limited conviction at the top.

The filings don’t answer that question. They just show the data. You decide what it’s worth.

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Cross-reference: /promos/ai-black-paper-jim-rickards/ | /promos/ai-debt-200-billion-fact-check/

Sources: SEC Form 4 filings via OpenInsider, SECForm4.com, StockTitan, MarketBeat; The Motley Fool (July 7, 2026); TECHi (April 2026); InsiderFlow; InsiderTrades.com; Finbold; Barron’s (May 2025). Compiled July 10, 2026.